Capn's Blog

I was just reading the numbers for the weekend box office receipts - and yes, it's only Sunday morning - but I thought I'd share my take on this data.

It used to be that I cared very much what the weekend take was - a kind of nerdy, half Hollywood stock market analysis - half Schadenfreude.

I kind of grew out of it, as either the movies got so terrible - the numbers declined to make it less fun - I knew that North America opening weekend BO receipts wasn't as important anymore. The bigger numbers came later with the International BO, DVD sell through, Netflix, On-Demand, Airline purchases... a combo of all the above, and suddenly I didn't care any more.

But the skills to deduce what these numbers really equals to a film or studio still lingers on a few brain cells. For instance, I can tell you when a movie will be on TNT and what they paid for it. I can tell you when a movie will be on HBO, and how often it will be played. And every once in a while, I can tell you that Office Space will do so well in the secondary (DVD) market, that they'll be begging Mike Judge to make a sequel... ...and he refuses because they treated him like Milton after the first weekend numbers came in. Actually, he still has so much anger and resentment toward the studio, that to this day he refuses to let them come out with a Special Edition which would have all of his original Milton cartoons.

Back to the numbers. I can also fairly well tell when a movie has bombed. I can't even do simple math - but I can tell you that Speed Racer is a bomb. It's a car wreck that has skidded off the track and crashed into the main support of Warner Brother's summer tent pole. Warner will survive the accident, but it's going to hurt them badly in the wallet.

It's a qualified bomb based on what the thing cost to make, and how much it raked in on the first two weekends. Seeing the numbers for their first weekend (again, I know it's Sunday morning... it's just how they do it, okay?) it cost 160+ million to make. Opening weekend accounts for fully 25% of whatever the movie will ultimately make in U.S. theaters. Let's pretend that Speed Racer brings in $20 million total this weekend (which is what it's shaping up to be), it will probably only ultimately make about $60 million total before going to DVD. Again, this does not include any international B.O.

Given that the movie cost $160 million, and that ticket sales are split between the studio and the theater owners, Warner Bros. is going to be about $130 million in the hole on. That's a huge, huge bomb. The Wachowski Brothers' "Speed Racer" slotted third on Friday with $6.2 million from 3,606 sites.

Third. Third rhymes with turd.

Iron Man took first, again, in it's second weekend. Iron Man has brought in $141.90 Million in it's first 8 days. That's why they've already green lit number 2 and a whole slew of other Marvel movies. (If I would have said "took the checkered flag" I'd be a brilliant douche-bag writer...)

Ashton Kuncher's What Happens in Vegas grossed $7.2 million from 3,215 locations. "Vegas" repped an opening day high for a romantic comedy in May, besting the $6.5 million charted by 1999's "Notting Hill." Goddamnit people. This is going to cement Ashton Kuncher as a real movie star now. He'll be in more movies than Ben Sitller now. Please stop going to these fuggin' movies, please. Please?

But just how bad is the Speed Racer movie, really?

Joe Morgenstern (Wall Street Journal) said, "This toxic admixture of computer-generated frenzy and live-action torpor succeeds in being, almost simultaneously, genuinely painful -- the esthetic equivalent of needles in eyeballs -- and weirdly benumbing, like eye candy laced with lidocaine." Okay, that's the WSJ. Not exactly the first place to go for a live action Anime review. I'd be better off with someone who "gets the concept"... maybe the Onion...


Okay, it's tripping balls eye candy. Not the worst film - but some folks question why you would make a limited appeal kiddie film of a 41 year old cartoon... called Mach GoGoGo (マッハGoGoGo Mahha GōGōGō) that had limited appeal in the first place. I guess if you think that 40 year olds have kids - there would be a natural cross over effect... Hey, why not do the Transformers... oh. Yeah... they did that one...

How about this review:

Glenn Kenny of Premiere said the storyline was one of the most "blatantly anti-capitalist" and "most genuinely confounding" of recent years. Depending upon the viewpoint, he said, it was either "the most headache-inducing" children's film of all, or the most expensive avante-garde film ever made.

Which is insane, when you consider how many corporate movie tie ins there are for this thing! The film was backed by multiple promotional partners with over $80 million in marketing support. The partners include General Mills, McDonald's, Target, Topps, Esurance, Mattel, and LEGO. Never mind the video games and the obvious NASCAR tie ins.

Which is, I guess ironic, given the fact that there's a heavy anti-corporate message, how the movie will save itself. Even as a bomb - the Wii racing game, the Hot Wheels Mach 5, and the Happy Meal sales alone will offset the lackluster box office.

And then it might sell well on DVD as a drug culture 'cult' movie. It could be sold as the first movie created for Meth-heads. Which, if you bother to think about that for even a second - Meth-heads don't have any money, you idiots!

Damn if I can't get that Alpha Team techno version of Speed Racer out of my head...

If you've SEEN it (which I admit I have not, I'm just looking at the numbers) please feel free to leave me a review. Many readers have written in saying they enjoyed the Iron Man movie - mostly because they weren't that familiar with the story or character before walking into the theater. Not that badly dubbed Anime has a lot of baggage with the potential audience for Speed Racer... but drop a line. Let me know.

But according to the numbers I'm looking at - you're not going to see it.