Do you hear a drum beat? No? You think that because a U.S. intelligence finding that Iran was NOT building an atomic bomb, this is over? Iran said it felt vindicated. Of course George W. Bush said Tehran remained dangerous and international pressure should continue.
The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) published on Monday took U.S. friends and foes by surprise after years of strident rhetoric from Washington accusing Tehran of pursuing a covert nuclear weapons program.
Iran said the report supported its long-standing assertion that its nuclear program had only peaceful civilian aims, such as electricity generation. And I have some beautiful bridges for sale.
In the fog of war, it literally is a fog. And just because you don't see it - don't mean it ain't there. And on top of it all - it's probably just a bunch of bull from the State Department (not big fans of George Bush)
Here's a deep thought on the Iranian Nuke-u-lar stalemate by American Thinker:
Suppose you're a cop, and you have to stop a well-known Mafia hit man on a dark night, driving his Cadillac. You know he's recklessly dangerous - he's threatened you every day, in public, for the last 30 years. (What do you think "Death to America!" really means?) So you call the dispatcher and ask them to tell you as much as they know about the suspect. Specifically, does he carry a loaded gun? You tell them it's urgent. This is not a normal traffic stop.
This is a nerve-wracking business. You call for backup, to be able to hit the suspect with overwhelming force if you need it. But you know the lawyers will be after you if you overreact. It's damned if you do and damned if you don't.
Headquarters calls back. To the best of their intelligence, they tell you, the chances that the suspect has a loaded gun is "plausible but unlikely."
What do you do?
That's exactly what President Bush is facing today. Our Intelligence Community has labored mightily and brought forth a camel --- a Cover-Your-Ass committee judgment on the most dangerous rogue regime in the world today: The Khomeini cult and its mouthpiece Ahmadi-Nejad. A'jad has been completely clear about his murderous intentions. He means to kill and blackmail you and all your allies, not just Israel but the Arab states as well, notably Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, sitting on the oil faucet for half the world. Just for good measure, he has directly threatened Britain, France and Germany, as well as the good ole USA.
The UN agency, the IAEA, says that with 3,000 centrifuges running the Natanz plant can produce enough fissionable material for a nuclear Bomb in one year. The US intelligence community puts it at three to eight years.
But the Iranians have consistently lied about their nuke actities, so the chances are near-perfect that they are lying and understating their programs today. Israel just bombed to smithereens a secret joint Syrian-Iranian-North Korean plant on the Euphrates river, which is believed by one of the foremost Israeli authorities to have imported plutonium from North Korea, ready to be molded into a Bomb.
What does the fresh National Intelligence Estimate tell us? A secret Iranian nuclear project, one that we don't know about, but which may already have produced a Bomb, is "plausible but unlikely."
As Michael Ledeen just wrote, this is exquisite CYA. If Iran already has a nuke, the spooks can't be faulted, because they said it was "plausible." If it doesn't have a nuke, they can't be criticized either, because they said it was "unlikely."
By God, it's good to have a 100 billion dollar intelligence bureaucracy that can really protect us. Isn't it, though?
Here's the kicker: If Iran already has fissionable material, they are invulnerable to attack. So the spooks have thrown their hot potato right back at the White House and the Pentagon. Our soldiers' lives are on the line, right next door in Iraq. "Plausible but unlikely." I bet the Pentagon is really grateful.
Anyone wonder why Mock Mood is laughing?
Remember when Democrats didn't believe anything intelligence said because Bush and Darth Cheney cooked it? Well, now that the NIE says what they want it to say, it's infallible.
This is getting dangerous.
And, as I suggested yesterday - the NIE was created and released by disgruntled State Department workers. They are either
a) trying to make a name for themselves or
b) think they're going to stop a war
c) should be hung for treason.
Time will tell.
Meanwhile, The Bush Administration claims it has new, secret information about Iran's weapons program that differs from the public NIE report that was just released. Hmmm... does this sound familiar to anyone? And the Israelis are also shouting No - No - No!
Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak directly challenged the new assessment in an interview, and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said the new finding wouldn't deter Israel or the United States from pressing its campaign to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapons capability.
"It seems Iran in 2003 halted for a certain period of time its military nuclear program, but as far as we know, it has probably since revived it," Barak said.
That would be called "Shock and Awe" ladies and gentlemen. The Iranians saw that and went "Daaaammmmm." But since then, after a couple years of picking at the open wound of Iraq, they probably felt that the US wouldn't have the stomach to blow the hell out of Iran. Why not "wipe Israel off the map?"
Now with the NIE causing a stir, flawed or spot on, doesn't even matter. Now the negotiation and diplomatic pressure are out the window, and sanctions aren't going to hold any water. Not with the Democrats, or China, or Russia. No negotiation? No pressure? What does that leave you? Only a military response.
I would contend, that if the NIE was written and handed out to prevent a war - it may have very well accelerated it.
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